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Reaction by 3 governors, MPs and former leaders at the wake of contested census report

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NAIROBI—During a press conference at the Parliament building, Governors, senators MPs drawn from Wajir, Mandera and Garissa counties vowed to challenge the 2019 census result at the High Court. 

They unanimously said it was maliciously manipulated to reduce the numbers of the Northeastern counties in a bid to deny the locals more resources.

Below is the reactions of section of leaders following the announcement of the National Census Report on Monday at State House.

Abdi  Shurie, Balambala MP

“The census result for Balambala Constituency that was released today 4th November, 2019, is not only fake and fraudulent but is tainted with illegalities. It reeks of impunity and flagrant abuse of power and authority.

Its within the Public Knowledge that KNBS previously bungled the mapping exercise leading to the allocation of fewer number of enumeration areas for Balambala Constituency. Their unrealistic administrative action forced us to seek legal redress from the courts of law.”

Ahmed Bashane, Tarbaj MP

“In 2009 Census, the Population of Tarbaj people was 111,846.  Here comes 2019 result, KNBS is stating that the population is less than 2009 figures. How comes after 10 years the figures are less? “

Farah Maalim, Former Lagdera Mp

“Population  census in Kenya is always riddled with manipulation. Central Kenya leaders can now celebrate the shrinking of Somali Population. For ten good years leaders from Central Kenya slept, woke & dreamt the population of former NEP. Remember what goes around comes around.”

Billow Kerrow, Former Mandera senator

“For those from North Eastern (NE), it is incredulous that the population of the 3 counties of Mandera, Wajir & Garissa is 2.4 million, same as Kiambu county at 2.4 million! NE grew by 80k in 10 years whilst Kiambu grew by 800k. Na hawazai!”

Major Bashir Sheikh, Mandera North MP.

“Was there another census after August done at the KNBS offices? We demand for the RAW data as captured by the enumerators on the ground in  Aug. KNBS doctored results and for obvious reasons.”

Ali Roba, Governor Mandera County.

“We reject the released census results in totality. The numbers as released are just but fabricated numbers to fit the predetermined outcome that is aimed at favouring those that believed marginalised areas are undeserving and have been very loud in agitating for resource denial for northern kenya.

We see systematic scheme skewed to further marginalise our people and reward counties that have traditionally benefitted from national coffers since independence at the expense of others. 

we are shocked that Government machinery is being used to manipulate figures to further marginalise Northern Kenya and by extension Mandera.

It is illogical to say that mandera will have negative population growth when all data by the same entity has been consistently indicating that these region has the highest fertility rate compared to other counties. Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) has maintained that Mandera has an average house hold size of 6.9 persons compared to other counties with average household sizes of below 3 but have managed to attain a whooping 49% population growth. It is extremely shameful that KNBS can be this bold in executing an illegality in crafting numbers that do not conform to census norms globally. 

 Mandera’s population has been reported as 867, 457 down from 1,02 million ten years ago. This is negative population growth by 157,000 meaning somewhat miraculously we have not only failed to produce any child for ten years as a county, but have miraculously lost 157,000 persons to KNBS architects. How can this be logical?.

We will move to court to challenge these figures hoping to get justice from our judicial system.”

Mohamed Abdi & Ali Korane , Wajir, Garissa Governors joint statement.

“The County Governments of North Eastern Kenya ( Wajir, Garissa and Mandera as represented here ) take great exception to the 2019 Census results that was released yesterday. The leadership of these 3 counties join other Kenyans in rejecting the flawed results of the 2019 census exercise and condemning the associated impunity, for the following reasons:

1. The released results are not for the actual enumeration that took place from the night of 24th/25th August 2019 and ended on 31st August 2019. Instead, we have confirmation that the data used especially for these counties came from pre-census mapping data collected earlier which were data extrapolations and not actual numbers. Hence this data is false and not fit for purpose of census.

2. We see substantial negative growth in population of counties (Mandera) and sub-counties ( list them ) which contradicts the basic principles of population growth  statistics and published regional fertility rates. Moreover, this is not reflective of the KNBS projection of an annual growth rate of 3.22% for the period 2009-2019, and further contradicts the Kenya Demographic and Health Survey, 2014 which indicates an average birth rate of 6.5%.

In contrast, Kiambu County whose population was 1.6 million in 2009 with an average birth rate of 2.7% has recorded a population of 2.4 million in 2019 census. This shows an increase of 800,000, but, statistically it could not have registered more than 423,000.

3. KNBS has not counted and has no methodology to count nomadic communities that have no permanent settlements and no known addresses to reach them. Over 70% of the population of Northern Kenya consists of these nomadic lifestyle. This is the biggest part of the systemic disenfranchisement of nomadic communities over the years.

4. KNBS deliberately reduced the number of enumeration areas during the mapping process compared to 2009 census. This has significantly affected the already hard to reach nomadic households which account for more than 70% of Wajir County Households.

5. The drought experienced during the census period forced pastoralists to cross the borders with Somalia, Ethiopia and with other counties in search of pasture and water. Therefore, a significant number of our households were not enumerated.

6. By all indication, we believe that the numbers were manufactured to suit certain premeditated outcomes that will ensure resource allocation and electoral representation increased for certain counties at the expense of marginalized counties and thus use extra-judicially means to correct the 2009 census “anomaly” via the back door.

7. We see systemic scheme by elements within government hell bent on manipulating census figures to consolidate resources and further marginalize many parts of Kenya and more specifically the northern Kenya counties.

8. It is clear from the voter register of some of the affected constituencies that the purported numbers do not make sense. For example, Tarbaj Constituency has over 20,000 voters in the register and now with the new population figures of 57,000.

9. Other glaring inaccuracies include the case of cosmopolitan constituency of Wajir East with a purported household count of 16,000. 

Nothing could further from the truth as any sane person knows there over 200,000 households in Wajir East urban even before you count the rural population

Based on the above, we the leadership and citizens of North Eastern Kenya state that there is a clear indication of data manipulation and doctoring of figures to disadvantage specific regions/ areas of Kenya and make the following demands:

1. That the released results of the 2019 population census be withdrawn immediately.

2. Use of these results in planning and resource allocation be reconsidered.

3. That the raw data made available to establish the source of the released figures and credible investigation done to find out why the actual census data was not used.

4. That the blatant impunity associated with the handling of the census and subsequent actions be curtailed to maintain the unity of the country.

5. Marginalized parts of Kenya have realized the fruits of independence only after the promulgation of the 2010 constitution. This reality is now in danger courtesy of these fabricated census numbers. These figures must be corrected.

6. A tabular comparison of the 2009 and 2019 census results for each County is as illustrated below for further information and scrutiny;

WAJIR COUNTY.

S/NO. SUB-COUNTY 2019 2009 VARIANCE PECRCENTAGE

GROWTH

1. Wajir North 112,092 135,505 (23,413) (17.28%)

2. Eldas  88,509 80, 805 7,7049.53%

3. Wajir South 290,948 130,070 160,878 123.69%

4. Tarbaj 57,232 111,846 (54,614) (48.83%)

5. Wajir East 110,654 112,572 (1,918) (1.70%)

6. Wajir West 121,828 91,143 30,685 33.67%

Total Wajir County 781,263 661,941 119,322 18.03%

Key: Brackets in variance and percentage change columns indicate negative changes

GARISSA COUNTY.

S/NO. SUB-COUNTY 2019 2009 VARIANCE PECRCENTAGE

GROWTH

1. Garissa Township 163,914 116,953 46,961 40.15%

2. Balambala 32,257 73,109 -40,852 -55.88%

3. Lagdera 50,315 92,636 -42,321 -45.69%

4. Fafi 134,040 95,212 38,828 40.78%

5. Ijara 297,898 92,663 205,235 221.49%

6. Dadaab 185,252 152,487 32,765 21.49%

Total Garissa County  863,676 661,941 201,735 30.48%

MANDERA COUNTY.

S/NO. SUB-COUNTY 2019 2009 VARIANCE PECRCENTAGE

GROWTH

1. Mandera East 159,638 178,831 -19,193 -10.73%

2. Mandera West 98,300 161,701 -63,401 -39.21%

3. Mandera South 229,614 247,619 -18,005 -7.27%

4. Mandera North 143,850 169,675 -25,825 -15.22%

5. Lafey 83,457 109,856 -26,399 -24.03%

6. Banissa 152,598 158,074 -5,476 -3.46%

Total Mandera County 867,457 1,025,756 -158,299 -15.43%”

Aden Duale, Garissa MP.

“During a press statement on the 2019 Census Results for North Eastern Counties (Wajir, Garissa and Mandera). We reject the flawed results and condemn the associated impunity.

1. The released results are not for the actual enumeration that took place from the night of 24th/25th August 2019 and ended on 31st August 2019. Instead, we are certain that the data used especially for these counties came from pre-census mapping data collected earlier which were data extrapolations and not actual numbers. Hence this data is false and not fit for purpose of census.

2. We see substantial negative growth in population of counties (Mandera) and other sub-counties in the region which contradicts the basic principles of population growth statistics and published regional fertility rates. Moreover, this is not reflective of the KNBS projection of an annual growth rate of 3.22% for NEP counties 2009-2019, and further contradicts the Kenya Demographic and Health Survey, 2014 which indicates an average birth rate of 6.5%.

3. KNBS has not counted and has no methodology to count nomadic communities that have no permanent settlements and no known addresses to reach them. Over 70% of the population of Northern Kenya consists of these nomadic lifestyle. This is the biggest part of the systemic disenfranchisement of nomadic communities over the years.

4. It is clear from the voter register of some of the affected constituencies that the purported numbers do not make sense. For example, in Tarbaj & Balambala, Lafey, Lagdera and Mandera West Constituencies.

5. Other glaring inaccuracies include the case of cosmopolitan constituencies of Wajir East, Garissa Township and Mandera East with huge house hold populations of over 200,000 have not been captured correctly. It beats common sense that such constituencies have less than 20,000 households. 

Based on the above, we the leadership and citizens of North Eastern Kenya state that there is a clear indication of data manipulation and doctoring of figures to disadvantage specific regions/ areas of Kenya and make the following demands: 

1. That the released results of the 2019 population census be withdrawn immediately.

2. Use of these results in planning and resource allocation be reconsidered.

3. That the raw data made available to establish the source of the released figures and credible investigation done to find out why the actual census data was not used. 

4. That the blatant impunity associated with the handling of the census and subsequent actions be curtailed to maintain the unity of the country.

5. Marginalized parts of Kenya have realized the fruits of independence only after the promulgation of the 2010 constitution. This reality is now in danger courtesy of these fabricated census numbers. These figures must be corrected. 

6. The entire data processing and quality assurance be audited and made public. 

7. We shall seek court redress on this matter.”

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