How Somalia is Resetting its Foundation in the Rebuilding Process

By: Abdullahi Sh Nor

Somalia’s persistent problems of insecurity, food shortage and institutional collapse may have compounded the description of a country for decades.

However, progressive signs indicate the country may not be stuck after all. After three decades of trying to stabilise the country, the international community could be waiting nervously as the country hurtles towards the 2021, the regionally agreed deadline for the transition programme to turn the country into a constitutional democracy.

Yet, according to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA), at least 4.2 million Somalis still face food shortage and about 2.9 million more are displaced within their own country following insecurity or erratic weather.

Just a week ago, terrorists laid siege on a hotel in Kismayu, breaking a long period of relative peace in the city since Al-Shabaab fell to Somali forces supported by Amisom in 2012.

But in that chaos, there have been signs the current leadership in Mogadishu could be laying firm foundations to be followed in future. 

When President Mohammed Farmaajo came to power in February 2017, he was a realistic assessor of the situation.

“Our government is facing so many challenges and even though I will be doing my best, I also want to make clear for the Somali public that due to limited resources regarding economy and forces of security, what we could do is going to be limited,” he said on his inauguration, reminding the public current problems were created over two decades and may need a similar period to be sorted.

So what is the fate of Somalia two years later? Many of the problems like corruption and insecurity, identified then, still face Mogadishu. Farmaajo’s defining decision upon election was the appointment of Prime Minister Hassan Ali Khaire, a former oil executive and himself a former refugee who had fled his country for safety. His return to serve, alone, signified a change in perception about the new leadership.  

Now the head of the government, Premier Khaire could be the cog that finds key institutions and improve key priority areas such as justice and security, inclusive politics, socio-economic and human development.

Is it too early to give a verdict? Perhaps not. Nobody expected PM Khaire to turn it around overnight. Yet there has been a roadmap laid specially in turning around the view of global institutions about Somalia.

From buttressing the Somali Central Bank which had been rebuild in 2013, Somalia received the first grant of $80 million from the World Bank in September last year, signalling the first batch of financial assistance from the Bank in 30 years.

The World Bank had suspended ties with Mogadishu in 1991 following the war. Now the money is to be used for institutional reforms. The Bank had not directly funded the government since, although there had been monies channelled through humanitarian organisations since 2003.

This week (July 19), the Africa Development Bank approved $28.86 million for water and sanitation and roads projects. The grants, consisting of $11.99 million from the Bank’s Transition States Facility (TSF) for an urban water and sanitation project for the Kismayo and Baidoa towns, and $16.86 million for the rehabilitation of roads, were part of AfDB’s role to “tackle fragility in the Horn of Africa,” it said in a statement. Infrastructure is part of the Economic Recovery Roadmap.

But it signals an overall turning view on Somalia. Somalia’s problem in the past has been lack of institutional memory. Traditionally an oral society, it has also rarely re-elected a president. In fact, no one has won back a seat during the last two decades of transition.

These roadmaps, mainly the work of PM Khaire , could therefore guide and assess government priorities but also enable successive administrations and officials to carry on with any unfinished businesses in line with the guidelines, policies and strategic plans that have been put in place.

There is a tight deadline especially on the constitutional review, part of the Transition programme, that will have specific outlines on roles of central government and the federal state governments.

The Prime Minister, in past public comments said security sector reform is his pet project. Yet reforming this key sector remains an uphill task. The government’s comprehensive roadmap he published earlier in his job included training forces, establishing proper laws especially on human rights as well as taking over from duties of Amisom.

So far, they are implementing a programme called the National Security Architecture, which aims to establish lean, professional, accountable and sustainable security organs.

Earlier this year, PM Khaire announced a project for documentation of official number of the National Armed Forces, their positions, ranking and seniority, as a key step in professionalising the military to regional if not global standards.

 Professionalising the army is one way of attracting skilled recruits to join.

Somalia’s partners such as Turkey, USA, UK may help strengthen that by offering adequate training to the Somali National Army that is expected to take over the security duties from the Amisom forces once the transition is done. Recently, the Somali Special Forcesknown as Danab, dislodged the terrorists from the strategic small bridge town of Sabiid. 

They have also liberated Barire town and continue to seize control of more territory. Danab is US-trained.

Somalia may have got new leadership but still faces old problems. Despite periodic attacks, leaders in Mogadishu have often viewed Al-shabaab as being on the back foot, seen through rising defection rates as announced from time to time.

The usual motivations for joining the militants remain. Military offensives will now have to be supplemented by efforts to counter extremist ideologies.

Economically, the government’s focus infrastructure, implementation of a debt relief programme, mobilisation and promotion of domestic revenue is key. Creating jobs, strengthening the production sectors such as agriculture, fisheries and livestock could certainly link up to security.

But like terrorism, the government will have to detach from the corrupt. Sustainable peace process requires revamping country’s economy by creating jobs, strengthening the production sectors such as agriculture, fisheries and livestock. There is certainly renewed optimism in Somalia’s recovery and progression.